Predictions, Trends, and Data

A prediction is an extrapolation of a single person’s experience (often combined with exaggeration for attention).

Predictions are fun and easy to make, but neither accurate or useful because it’s an extrapolation of a single person’s experiences.

Identifying trends is more helpful to everyone. If you’re sure about current trends, you can plan for the future.

But trends are harder to identify because they require data. The more data people have access to, the better they can identify trends.

At the end of this year, instead of asking members to make predictions, ask them to help one another identify far more useful trends.

This begins by asking members to be open about sharing what data they’ve seen and what data they have. Or, failing that, what data they would like to have.

Helping members identify trends in your field is one of the most valuable things you can do for your members. Alas, it’s also one of the hardest.

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