Outliers: The Major Distortion of Community Projections

May 18, 2010Comments Off on Outliers: The Major Distortion of Community Projections

The overwhelming number of communities you hear about have hundreds of thousands or members. They grew overnight in a huge explosion. Facebook has 500m members in four years.

This is a huge distortion of reality. These are the outliers. They get the most attention, but they don’t reflect the truth.

The overwhelming number of successful communities grew slowly. They began with a few members. Then they attracted a few more members. The creator invited select people and groups at a time. They invited people with something to contribute. They invite people who they specifically wanted to join an online community. Others just happened to chance on by.

If you’re banking on 10,000 active members in your first year, you’re probably going to be disappointed. You’re going to aim for big press coverage and major victories. You’re going to miss your expectations, become depressed (instead of focusing on existing members) and quit. It happens a lot. Don’t bank on rapid growth, ever.

It’s much better to predict 2000 members in your first year if you’re personally inviting 5 – 10 people a day to join. That’s a defensible figure. Once you have a realistic number (and treat extras as a bonus) you can decide how much content, time and resources you need to spend to get there.

So set figures if you need to, but justify them with defensible actions. Ignore the outliers.

Comments Off
©2018 FeverBee Limited, 1314 New Providence Wharf, London, United Kingdom E14 9PJ FEVERBEE

We’d like you to join us.

We’re a group of community professionals who push each other to the cutting edge of our work. Every day we share our experiences, highlight new expertise, and push one another to become the best community builders we can be.

The day you join, you’ll get access to 1000+ practical tips, dozens of resources, and unlimited access to the top experts in our space. You’ll also get to see how we go about building a community amongst our own audience.

It takes just 30 seconds and doesn’t cost a thing.

CLICK HERE AND JOIN FEVERBEE

Level Price  
ALL COURSES The price for membership is $750.00 per month or $7,200.00 per year
Select
Community Development Program The price for membership is $1,100.00 per month or $10,560.00 per year
Select
Director of Community The price for membership is $8,770.00 per month
Select