Does It Flatten?

Eric shares some incredible stats on Google+

Just 5.5% of Google+ users have ever made a post. 

Of these:

• 84.9% made 1+ post
• 25.5% made 5+ posts
• 15.0% made 10+ posts
• 3.6% made 50+ posts

If you're a good community professional, you'll look for the point the drop-off rate (% of members from previous tier that kept participating) flattens.

Here we find:

• 94% of people of members never make a post
• 71% of members who make 1 post never reach 5 posts.
• 35% of members who make 5 posts never reach 10 posts.
• 69% of members who reach 10 posts never reach 50 posts. 

In chart form, the drop-off rate looks like this:

Clearly the 2.2bn figure (everyone who has a Google account) is skewing the graph here.

If we remove that initial 94%, the graph looks more like this. 

Can you spot the problem? The chart doesn't flatten.

You're as likely to quit Google+ after making 10 posts as you are after making 5 (more likely in fact).

More activity doesn't lead to you make unique connections, build a reputation you want to maintain, feel part of a unique community, or co-create exclusive value – the sort of things that keep people participating in a community. 

In its current incarnation Google+ can't succeed as a social network. If the line doesn't fatten significantly (at least half of the previous drop-out rate, then half again) then fixing the top-of the funnel doesn't change anything. You'll just lose members later (and as fast).

Here's what you need to do, track where people are dropping out by the number of posts they make. What % of members have made 1+, 5+, 10+, 20+, 50+ posts etc…Does the line significantly flatten or is it a straight line? If it's the former, you can create interventions after 1, 5, 10 posts etc.

If it doesn't, you need a new community concept.